LAGOS – Estimated aircraft deliveries for 2024 has dropped sharply to 1,254, indicating 30 per cent fall compared to its peak in 2018, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA).
IATA, also said that the average age of the global fleet has risen to a record 14.8 years, a significant increase from the 13.6 years average for the period 1990-2024.
These were contained in a report released to the media by IATA.
IATA however said that aircraft deliveries are forecasted to rise to 1,802, but still well below earlier expectation for 2,293 deliveries with further downward revisions in 2025 widely seen as quite possible.
IATA added that the backlog, which is the cumulative number of unfulfilled orders for new aircraft has reached 17,000 planes, a record high.
At present delivery rates, it said this would take 14 years to fulfil, double the six-year average backlog for the 2013-2019 period.
Also, the number of “parked” aircraft is 14 per cent, approximately about 5,000 aircraft of the total fleet of 35,166 as at December 2024.
While this has improved recently, parked aircraft remain 4 per centage points higher than pre-pandemic levels, IATA said.
Of these, 700, representing 2 per cent of the global fleet are parked for engine inspections, predicting that this would persist into 2025.
The association expected severe supply chain issues to continue to impact airline performance into 2025, raising costs and limiting growth.
Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General, regretted that supply chain issues were frustrating every airline with a triple whammy on revenues, costs, and environmental performance.
He expressed that load factors are at record highs, noting that with more aircraft, the airlines could be profitably deployed, but lamented that the carriers’ revenues are being compromised.
He added: “Meanwhile, the aging fleet that airlines are using has higher maintenance costs, burns more fuel, and takes more capital to keep it flying. And, on top of this, leasing rates have risen more than interest rates as competition among airlines intensified the scramble to find every way possible to expand capacity.
“This is a time when airlines need to be fixing their battered post-pandemic balance sheets, but progress is effectively capped by supply chain issues that manufacturers need to resolve.”
Specifically, IATA noted that persistent supply chain issues at least partially responsible for two negative developments.
Fuel efficiency was unchanged between 2023 and 2024 at 0.23 litres/100 Available Tonne Kilometers (ATK), stressing that this is a step back from the long-term (1990-2019) trend of annual fuel efficiency improvements in the range of 1.5-2 per cent.
IATA added that exceptional demand for leased aircraft pushed leasing rates for narrow body aircraft to levels 20-30 per cent higher than in 2019.
“The entire aviation sector is united in its commitment to achieving net zero carbon emissions by 2050. But when it comes to the practicality of actually getting there, airlines are left bearing the biggest burden. The supply chain issues are a case in point.
“Manufacturers are letting down their airline customers and that is having a direct impact of slowing down airlines’ efforts to limit their carbon emissions. If the aircraft and engine manufacturers could sort out their issues and keep their promises, we’d have a more fuel-efficient fleet in the air,” said Walsh.
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