… Seek InfraCo, Dangote Refinery Listing
After recording a good performance in 2024, the Nigerian Exchange Limited (NGX) has been projected to experience another good year in 2025 with a more robust performance.
This was the consensus opinion of two notable analysts in the country who unveiled their outlook for the new year at capacity-building sessions organised separately by members of the Finance Correspondents Association of Nigeria (FICAN) and the Capital Market Correspondents Association of Nigeria (CAMCAN) in Lagos, last week.
Ugodre Obi-Chukwu, Chief Executive Officer of Nairametrics, was the resource analyst at the FICAN forum, while Olatunde Amolegbe, Managing Director/CEO of Arthur Stevens Asset Management Limited was the resource person at the CAMCAN forum.
Speaking at the CAMCAN forum, Amolegbe said Nigeria’s equities market is positioned for robust expansion in 2025 and this is expected to be spurred by a stable foreign exchange landscape and declining inflation.
He then outlined critical drivers for the anticipated growth.
He said: “A stable FX market or declining exchange rates will significantly bolster the equities market as improved foreign exchange dynamics could also lead to a reduction in inflation, creating a favourable climate for investors.
Amolegbe, highlighted that a drop in inflation could prompt monetary authorities to ease interest rates, further enhancing market appeal.
Additionally, the recapitalisation of banks—set to be largely completed by 2025 despite the 2026 deadline—will strengthen the financial sector’s capacity to drive economic growth.
Key developments such as potential listings from the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited and Dangote Refinery are projected to catalyse investor activity. Amolegbe also provided a positive outlook for the banking, industrial, and oil and gas sectors, citing deregulation and strategic expansions as growth enablers.
The agriculture sector stands to benefit from increased government investment and improved security, while Consumer Goods companies leveraging backward integration strategies and limited FX dependence, like Unilever, are expected to thrive.
He reiterated his firm’s commitment to data-driven strategies, emphasizing that the equities market’s performance reflects the broader economic optimism. “Our conservative investment approach prioritizes stocks with solid growth potential.
‘We are confident in delivering value to investors in the year ahead,” he affirmed. With these developments, Nigeria’s capital market is set to enter a pivotal phase, marking a significant step forward in the nation’s economic resurgence.
To Obi-Chukwu, the NGX will be better positioned in 2025 if some notable listings could happen to boost capital formation and wealth creation.
In support of Amolegbe’s call for the listing of Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited and Dangote Refinery, Obi-Chukwu called for the mandatory listing of companies executing major infrastructure projects in Nigeria, including the Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway, on the Nigerian Exchange Ltd. (NGX).
He said the listing of such companies on the NGX would significantly enhance capital formation for critical infrastructure development and enable broader wealth distribution across the country.
The seminar, themed “Outlook for the Nigerian Economy in 2025,” gathered financial experts and stakeholders to discuss Nigeria’s economic trajectory.
Obi-Chukwu explained that when infrastructure companies are listed on NGX, it would unlock a new funding avenue for projects while allowing the public to invest and share in the collective wealth.
He stated, “For a lot of the projects going on in Nigeria now, such as the Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway and other government infrastructure projects, the companies executing those projects for the government should be made to list on the Nigerian Exchange Ltd. because when they list, capital flows across the country.”
By making these companies accessible to the public through the stock market, Obi-Chukwu emphasized, Nigeria could benefit from increased transparency and accountability in how projects are financed and executed.
He also pointed out that such a listing would ensure that Nigerians could receive dividends from these projects, allowing them to partake in the country’s economic growth.
Obi-Chukwu stressed that private companies executing large infrastructure projects without significant public involvement could result in a concentration of wealth among a few.
However, if these companies were listed on NGX, the wealth generated would be more widely distributed. “Once you do that, you will see a change in how the economy is growing, and you will see how wealth flows around the country,” he said.
Highlighting the importance of a robust capital market, Obi-Chukwu pointed to developed economies where the capital market’s value often exceeds their GDPs. He noted, “Our capital market is just valued at N60 trillion; compared to our GDP of over 200 trillion, it is still small. For most developed economies, their capital market is even larger than their GDPs, and that is because many of the companies driving economic growth in those countries are listed.”
Obi-Chukwu added that listing infrastructure companies on the NGX would significantly contribute to the economic growth of Nigeria and ensure a more equitable distribution of wealth.
He stressed that listing these companies will be a response to the urgent need to address Nigeria’s sluggish growth, which lags behind Ghana’s 4.4 per cent, Saudi Arabia’s 4.6 per cent, and Kenya’s five per cent.
He noted that initiatives such as the liberalisation of the telecommunications sector, the establishment of the National Integrated Power Project (NIPP) and the rehabilitation of key road networks played pivotal roles in driving economic expansion, attracting foreign investments and boosting investor confidence.
According to him, the reforms spurred economic activity, boosted investors’ confidence and encouraged Nigerians in the diaspora to return home.
He pointed out that infrastructure projects could unlock transportation networks, spur the creation of new living areas, and attract both investments and population shifts.
“The Obasanjo era demonstrated how strategic investments can create a thriving economy.
Nigerian companies attracted global investments, and many Nigerians in the diaspora were compelled to return, inspired by the economic potential created by these reforms,” Obi-Chukwu said.
To replicate such success, Obi-Chukwu proposed a focused approach toward upgrading critical sectors.
He stressed the need to modernise agriculture, expand transportation networks, enhance power generation and distribution, and improve oil and gas infrastructure.
The expert argued that complementary policies that promote transparency, accountability, and continuity in these projects are also vital to unlocking Nigeria’s growth potential and positioning the country for long-term development.
Obi-Chukwu, also stressed the importance of policies that promote transparency, accountability, and continuity to ensure the success of these initiatives.
He, however, warned of significant challenges, including high inflation, exchange rate instability, and fiscal deficits, noting that while achieving a 15 per cent inflation target may be ambitious, he projected inflation could stabilise at 29-30 per cent if ongoing reforms are sustained.
On currency stability, Obi-Chukwu cited the mismatch between the naira’s true value and its current exchange rate as a major concern. He called for increased dollar supply to address this imbalance amidst competition for inflows into frontier markets.
“Nigeria’s large fiscal deficits, growing debt burden, and high inflation rate pose serious threats to exchange rate stability and could undermine the benefits of ongoing forex reforms,” he warned.
Also to manage exchange rate volatility, Obi-Chukwu advised businesses to hedge against a worst-case scenario of N2,200/$1 exchange rate while preparing to take advantage of a best-case scenario of N1,700/$1.
Obi-Chukwu reiterated that sustained infrastructure investments and targeted economic reforms are Nigeria’s best bets for achieving sustainable growth, global competitiveness and currency stability.
Speaking on the first meeting of the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), Obi-Chukwu said it will largely be influenced by inflation numbers in January.
He said, “Let me say here that the first meeting of MPC will largely be influenced by inflation numbers in January, which would have been out in February before the meeting.
“I suspect that because of the inflation, they will likely keep rates stable. They are flat, on the flip side, depending on maybe some of the things that are happening globally, maybe some of the moves that Trump makes, if they don’t reduce interest rates as expected, because I think the job support that came out in the US earlier in the month sort of jolted markets. Then you could see the CBN adjust rates
“I don’t think that they want to reduce rates for now in February, but all year round, I think you expect to see rates start to go down.
“They can’t continue to keep returning up. I guess one of the things I would be worried about is that the December inflation rate was 34.8 per cent, so it’s still higher than your target, but I think they know that the numbers are likely going to come back down.
“And of course, they would also cite the fact that December is when people spend a lot, so maybe that’s also why inflation went up in December. But more likely rates will remain stable”.
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