LAGOS – The International Energy Agency (IEA),has said that global oil demand is expected to reach its highest point by 2030 and start to decrease the following year.
It projects that oil supply capacity will significantly exceed demand by the end of this decade.
The IEA’s June 2024 Oil Market Report published on 12 June forecasts that global oil demand, which includes biofuels, averaged just over 102 million barrels per day (mbbl/d) in 2023 and will level off near 106mbbl/d towards the end of this decade.
Global oil production capacity, the report said, is expected to increase in the coming years, with the US leading the surge.
This increase is anticipated to surpass the growth in demand until 2030. The report predicts that by 2030, total supply capacity will reach nearly 114mbbl/d, or 8mbbl/d more than the projected global demand.
“As the pandemic rebound loses steam, clean energy transitions advance and the structure of China’s economy shifts, growth in global oil demand is slowing down and set to reach its peak by 2030. This year, we expect demand to rise by around one mbpd [million barrels per day],” said IEA executive director Fatih Birol.
“This report’s projections, based on the latest data, show a major supply surplus emerging this decade, suggesting that oil companies may want to make sure their business strategies and plans are prepared for the changes taking place,” he added.
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